El Niño is stubbornly clinging to life, but a hurricane-fueling La Niña pattern looms

UNIVERSITY PARK, Maryland. –El Niño is still here… barely.

Tropical Pacific Ocean conditions are still clinging to above-average heat in critical parts of the eastern and central regions that barely meet the minimum threshold of at least 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) to maintain a weather advisory. El Niño, NOAA announced in its report. Monthly update on Thursday.

But El Niño’s days are still numbered, NOAA predicts. Most forecast models indicate continued cooling of waters in that area of ​​the Pacific, with a 79% chance that El Niño conditions will end in the next month.

It’s a declaration already made by other national weather agencies around the world, including Australia, which uses different reporting methods than NOAA to declare El Niño for the past month.

When neither La Niña nor El Niño controls what is known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern, it is considered a neutral state, sometimes referred to as La Nada.

NOAA says that despite persistent ocean warmth, the atmosphere in the tropical Pacific continues to show signs of fading El Niño’s influence and is transitioning to a neutral state.

And it’s likely still on the horizon: a shift toward the opposite La Niña pattern, which could intensify the upcoming hurricane season.

AUSTRALIA DECLARES THE END OF EL NINO IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC

Climate impacts of a neutral event

An El Niño exit to a neutral state would likely not mean any immediate climate change for North America, but the FOX Forecast Center will be watching for impacts throughout the upcoming summer and hurricane season.

Meteorological summer begins June 1, the same date as the start of the year’s tropical cyclone season.

Neutral years have ranged from just a handful of tropical systems to being among the most active on record, but seasons under a neutral regime generally have more impact than those that occur during an El Niño.

On the temperature front, all neutral events in the last two decades have produced summers with above or much above average temperatures.

The ENSO-neutral summer of 2019 was the hottest season on record in North America, with record heat experienced along the western and eastern coasts.

WHAT IS A NEUTRAL PATTERN?

Will La Niña intensify as hurricane season approaches?

While neutral status is in play, it doesn’t look like it will be long before the tropical Pacific cools straight into a La Niña pattern.

NOAA believes there is a 69% chance that water temperatures will cool below -0.5 degrees Celsius by late summer and an 83% chance in fall.

However, experts at Colorado State University and many others believe that the impending La Niña will play a major role in intensifying the 2024 hurricane season.

La Niña patterns in the summers and early fall tend to weaken upper-level winds in the Atlantic Ocean basin that would normally help break up brewing storms.

Researchers said they expect 23 named storms to form in 2024, of which 11 could reach hurricane status. Five of the 11 hurricanes are expected to reach major hurricane status with winds of at least 115 mph.

THE 2024 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON COULD BE AMONG THE MOST ACTIVE ON RECORD, EXPERTS PREDICT

But even with or without La Niña, which favors the formation of hurricanes with favorable upper temperatures–level patterns, a more than year-long period of record-breaking ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean is also fueling fears of a very active hurricane season on the horizon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN’S RECORD WARM STREAK ENDS AFTER 421 DAYS

La Niña: Flipping the script on winter in the US

As we exit hurricane season late in the year and move into fall and winter, the La Niña phase generally correlates with dry weather in the southern US and colder, wetter weather in the Pacific. Northwest and parts of the North.

It would be the opposite of what we have generally seen during this past El Niño winter.

California bore the brunt of several storms, many of them atmospheric river storms, leaving much of the state well above average in precipitation.

As the strong Pacific jet stream persistently hugged the South, several storms have passed through Texas and the Gulf Coast. Florida suffered one of the cloudiest December to January periods on record, according to data from Alaska climatologist Brian Brettschneider.

Meanwhile, apart from a strong Arctic outbreak fueled by a polar vortex in mid-January, it was a very mild winter across the northern part of the country.

Minneapolis had just 29.5 inches of snow (nearly 22 inches below average) and people were able to play golf and install swimming pools during the winter in a region better known for its freezing temperatures and snowstorms.

Swimming and golf may be relegated to more summery events if La Niña hits next winter.

NOAA’s next regular monthly update on the ENSO pattern is scheduled for June 13.