As costs pile up, pressure mounts on a country in economic crisis.

There were early warnings that Kenya’s long rainy season, between March and May, would bring above-normal rainfall. The extreme intensity of the rains has caused devastating flooding in many parts of the country. Forty of the country’s 47 counties have been affected. More than 230 people have died and around 40,000 households have been displaced so far.

Poor maintenance of key infrastructure and drainage systems, and disregard for environmental regulations regarding the maintenance of land near rivers, contributed to this situation.

The government has responded with measures to minimize destruction and safeguard lives. These include ordering the evacuation of households living near dams and water reservoirs in 33 counties, and forced evictions of those living near rivers. President William Ruto has also announced social support for displaced households.

The effects of the floods will have a massive impact on Kenya’s economy. I am a development economist with 20 years of experience in the field of development planning, policy implementation and research. I have also worked with the National Treasury and Economic Planning.

I am especially concerned about these things: the damage caused to transportation infrastructure, which will affect the prices of goods and services; destruction of crops, which will affect food security; and business losses, which will affect household income and consumer purchasing power.

The cost of repairing what is broken will also have a major impact on the country’s already stretched budget.

The impacts

Destroyed infrastructure

Much of the infrastructure has been affected.

In addition to roads, some dams, airports and water infrastructure will require maintenance.

Flooding and a landslide on the rail route between the capital Nairobi and Mombasa forced Kenya Railways to close all freight services. Nairobi satellite commuter train services were also suspended.

Currently, 58 destroyed roads have been reported. Some of these roads are key roads such as Kapenguria-Lokichar-Lodwar Highway, Nakuru-Eldoret Highway and Oletepesi-Magadi Highway. The Nakuru-Eldoret highway also connects Uganda, Rwanda and the Congo.

Road disruptions will immediately increase the cost of transportation as goods will travel on longer routes. This will have an effect on businesses in the transport, wholesale and retail sectors.

The rains also affected utility infrastructure (such as water pipelines in Nairobi) and filled dams to capacity. In a tragic incident, a dam in Kijabe overflowed, flooding villages and killing at least 40 people in the Mai Mahiu area.

The destruction of infrastructure will have a significant economic impact. Assessments of the last major floods in 2018 show that the government had to allocate an additional $120 million (24% of the previous year’s budget) for repairs and maintenance of road infrastructure.

Repairs were not immediate and sometimes were not even carried out. The effects were felt for years.

Destroyed farmland

Kenya’s agricultural sector has also been hit hard. Agriculture is vital to the economy: it accounts for around 33% of the country’s GDP and employs 40% of the total workforce. It is a vital source of livelihood and income for millions of Kenyans.

Around 40,000 acres (16,187 hectares) of farmland have already been reported to have been destroyed. In the 2018 floods, it was estimated that around 21,000 acres of crops were destroyed and that was a threat to food security. The impact of the floods on Kenyan agriculture was substantial: estimates suggest billions of Kenyan shillings in crop damage and loss of production. In addition, the floods caused landslides and soil erosion.

This time, the affected area is double. Farmers in affected areas face a complete loss of their crops and the disappearance of all their livelihoods. The flooding of 2,000 acres of the Mwea Irrigation Scheme, for example, will likely result in losses of the order of 60 million Kenyan shillings (about US$445,000) in lost crops. This does not include the loss to the companies that would have used the harvest.

So far, basket regions, where most staple food production occurs, have been spared the worst of the flooding. However, there is a very high probability that perishable crops such as vegetables and legumes will record very low yields. They have a shorter maturity and may have been waterlogged or washed away.

The effect on food security will likely be felt for much longer. Although Kenya has yet to estimate the effect of the floods on food production, in Tanzania, which exports food to Kenya, the floods are estimated to cause a 30% decline in production this year. Food prices are likely to remain high.

Cost for the bag

Kenya’s economy is still recovering from shocks including high debt, global food inflation and exchange rate shock.

Budget estimates for the next financial year reveal that the government has to do a delicate balancing act in trying to meet commitments and stimulate key sectors of the economy.

To address the emergency response to the flood situation, the government has sent a supplementary budget of 11 billion Kenya shillings (about 80 million US dollars) to the National Assembly for approval. All of this will likely be spent to provide direct support to households, resettle displaced households, and rebuild infrastructure such as schools and health facilities.

The government is already struggling to meet revenue targets due to a slowdown in economic performance. Full reconstruction will cost much more and divert resources from other sectors.

Better preparation

Overall, the current floods will have long-term effects on the economy. The change depends on the decisions made by the authorities. A balance must be maintained between reconstruction efforts and supporting the productive sectors of the economy, while offering support to those who have been affected.

Learning from the current disaster is necessary to better prepare for the next climate shock.

First, the disaster response of county governments must be strengthened. For example, stormwater drainage, which is blamed for much of the flooding in urban areas, is a function of county government.

Secondly, there is a need for better coordination between the government and non-state actors to ensure more efficient use of resources to support affected households.

Third, as climate shocks become more frequent, there is a need to invest in better weather prediction and early warning systems. So there must be immediate action on the recommendations of these systems, including training of households in disaster-prone areas.

Fourth, better planning of urban settlements is needed. This includes proper maintenance of roads, bridges and drainage infrastructure, compliance with building codes and standards, and environmental regulations, such as protection of riparian lands.

Finally, investing in generating and creating access to data can help inform responses and improve reconstruction planning after disasters.