Global temperatures will rise by at least 2.5 degrees this century, with catastrophic results, leading scientists predict – The Irish Times

Hundreds of the world’s leading climate scientists expect global temperatures to rise by at least 2.5 degrees this century, far exceeding internationally agreed targets and causing catastrophic consequences for humanity and the planet.

Nearly 80 percent of respondents, all of them from the authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), predict at least 2.5 degrees of global warming above pre-industrial levels, while almost half anticipate at least 3 degrees. Only 6 percent thought the internationally agreed limit of 1.5 degrees would be reached.

Many scientists foresee a “semi-dystopian” future, with famines, conflicts and mass migrations, driven by heat waves, forest fires, floods and storms of an intensity and frequency far greater than those that have already hit.

Many experts said they had felt desperate, angry and scared by the lack of action by governments despite clear scientific evidence provided, a survey for The Guardian revealed.

“I think we’re headed for major social disruption in the next five years,” said Gretta Pecl of the University of Tasmania. “(Authorities) will be overwhelmed by one extreme event after another, food production will be affected. “I couldn’t feel more despair about the future.”

But many said the climate fight must continue, no matter how much global temperatures rise, because every fraction of a degree avoided would reduce human suffering.

( We can no longer ignore reality: our climate is changing and we are not prepared )

( Could altering the climate or absorbing carbon from the air help solve the climate crisis? )

Peter Cox of the University of Exeter, UK, said: “Climate change will not suddenly become dangerous at 1.5 degrees; it already is. And it won’t be game over if we go above 2 degrees, which is very possible.”

The Guardian approached all contactable lead authors or reviewing editors of IPCC reports since 2018. Almost half responded, 380 out of 843. IPCC reports are gold standard assessments of climate change, endorsed by all governments and produced by experts in physical and social sciences. The results show that many of the most informed people on the planet expect climate havoc to occur in the coming decades.

The climate crisis is already causing profound damage to lives and livelihoods around the world, with just 1.2 degrees of global warming on average over the past four years. Jesse Keenan of Tulane University in the United States said: “This is just the beginning: buckle up.”

Nathalie Hilmi of the Monaco Scientific Centre, who expects an increase of 3 degrees, agrees: “We cannot stay below 1.5 degrees.”

Experts said massive preparations were now essential to protect people from the worst climate disasters to come. Leticia Cotrim da Cunha of Rio de Janeiro State University said: “I am extremely concerned about the cost in human lives.”

The 1.5 degree target was chosen to avoid the worst of the climate crisis and has been seen as an important guiding star for international negotiations. Current climate policies mean the world is on track to reach around 2.7 degrees, and the Guardian poll shows that few IPCC experts expect the world to take the huge steps needed to reduce that temperature.

Younger scientists were more pessimistic: 52 percent of respondents under 50 expected an increase of at least 3 degrees, compared to 38 percent of those over 50. Female scientists were also more pessimistic than men, with 49 percent thinking global temperatures would rise by at least 3 degrees, compared to 38 percent. There was little difference between scientists from different continents.

Dipak Dasgupta of the Energy and Resources Institute in New Delhi said: “If the world, however incredibly rich, stands by and does little to address the plight of the poor, we will all eventually lose.”

Experts were clear about why the world is failing to address the climate crisis. Nearly three-quarters of respondents cited a lack of political will, while 60 percent also blamed vested corporate interests, such as the fossil fuel industry.

Many also cited inequality and the rich world’s inability to help the poor, who suffer the most from climate impacts. “I expect a semi-dystopian future with substantial pain and suffering for people in the global south,” said a South African scientist, who preferred not to be identified. “The world’s response to date is reprehensible: we live in a time of fools.”

About a quarter of IPCC experts who responded thought global temperature rise would remain at 2 degrees or less, but even they tempered their hopes.

“I am convinced that we have all the necessary solutions for a 1.5 degree path and that we will implement them in the next 20 years,” said Henry Neufeldt, at the UN Copenhagen Climate Centre. “But I fear that our actions will come too late and we will cross one or more tipping points.”

Lisa Schipper of the University of Bonn, Germany, said: “My only source of hope is the fact that, as an educator, I can see the next generation being very intelligent and understanding politics.” – Guardian