Bob McKenzie’s NHL Draft Rankings: An ‘Unpredictable Journey’ After Macklin Celebrini

So much for the “consensus” in the (normally) so-called 2024 draft classification based on TSN consensus, edition of the NHL Draft Lottery.

Oh, Macklin Celebrini is still unrivaled as the top prospect in the 2024 draft. There’s no doubt about that.

Ten in 10 NHL club scouts surveyed last week by TSN have the precocious Boston University center as the undisputed No. 1, just as he was in TSN’s midseason rankings in late January . It is not surprising.

But beyond Celebrini?

Buckle up because it looks like it’s going to be an unpredictable ride.

As one scout put it, “Celebrini is going to be the No. 1, but the next five or six teams (picking after the No. 1) could have the No. 2 prospect on their (respective) rosters. There are very varied opinions (on the best prospects after Celebrini).”

The lack of a clear consensus beyond Celebrini (from #2 to #10 and beyond) would be unprecedented. I’ve been putting together preliminary rankings like this for more than 35 years, and I can’t remember a year in which the Top 10 was such a hodgepodge of opinion.

Will that change between now and TSN’s final draft rankings, which will be compiled in early June and released the week before the NHL draft in Las Vegas on June 28-29?

Maybe, but this draft could simply have a lot of really good prospects without perhaps much separating them, which could well put an even bigger premium than usual on each club’s individual likes, dislikes, preferences and/or needs. : big versus small. ; offensive versus defensive; forward versus defense; skilled versus physical.

Before we dig into some telling numbers on that front, here are the top 15 rankings from TSN, NHL Draft Lottery Edition:

1. Macklin Celebrini

To no one’s surprise, it’s the BU freshman center who not only played for Canada at the 2024 World Junior Championship, but will also play for Team Canada at the 2024 Senior Men’s World Championship in Prague.

2. Ivan Demidov

Ivan Demidov

The skilled center has been incredibly dynamic and productive in the Russian MHL and has risen through the ranks from his No. 6 spot on TSN’s midseason list.

3. Anton Silayev

Anton Silayev

The towering 6ft 7in Russian player was No. 2 midway through the season and his drop now to No. 3 probably says more about Demidov’s rise than Silayev’s slide.

4. Artem Levshunov

The Belarusian freshman defenseman from Michigan State, like Silayev, also moved down one spot from midseason, but the strong two-way defender is still viewed as a top-five prospect.

5. Cayden Lindstrom

Cayden Lindstrom

The Medicine Hat Tiger’s 6-foot-3, 210-pound scoring center remains at the same position he held midseason, but his status on draft day will be heavily influenced by NHL team doctors and medical reports at the NHL Combine, June 2. -8 in Buffalo. Lindstrom suffered a hand injury in December that required surgery and was also reportedly rehabbing a back ailment. He didn’t play in a game for over three months and returned to play in just four playoff games for the Tigers, tallying one goal, one assist and 14 penalty minutes. If he’s considered healthy, that size and offensive potential make him an attractive Top 5 pick, but if there are any concerns about the medical reports, well, teams are very interested in doing that due diligence.

6. Sam Dickinson

Sam Dickinson London Knights

The London Knight’s big, smooth-skating, puck-moving two-way defenseman moved up one spot from his midseason rankings.

7. Zayne Parekh

Spirit of Zayne Parekh Saginaw

The dynamic Saginaw Spirit defenseman jumped two spots thanks to a 33-goal, 96-point regular season and an offensive skill set that separates him from virtually every other talented player in this draft.

8. Zeev Buium

Zeev Buium

A member of the NCAA champion Denver Pioneers, the American blueliner has risen five spots from his midseason rankings.

9. Konsta Helenius

Finland

The 17-year-old, under-six-foot Finnish forward had a productive season with Jukurit in Finland’s top professional league, losing just one place in the mid-season standings.

10. Tij Iginla

The son of former NHL star Jarome Iginla has had a meteoric rise from No. 16 midseason to No. 10 now and is coming off a particularly strong performance for gold medal-winning Canada at the World Championships. Under-18.

11. Berkeley Catton

Berkly Catton Spokane Chiefs

The Spokane Chiefs’ prolific but under-6-foot center (57 goals and 116 points) slipped just one spot off TSN’s midseason list.

12. Carter Yakemchuk

Carter Yakemchuk Calgary Hitmen

The big, lanky Calgary Hitmen defenseman scored 30 goals, 71 points and 120 penalty minutes to maintain the same spot he had on the mid-season roster.

13. Cole Eiserman

USA Hockey

The US Under-18 National Team Development Program forward has seen his stock drop throughout the season (he fell 10 spots from his mid-season ranking), but is still considered perhaps the best pure shooter/scorer in the draft.

14. Beckett Sennecke

Beckett Sennecke Oshawa General

Oshawa General’s flashy 6-foot-2 offensive forward continued to elevate his game as the season progressed, rising from No. 19 in TSN’s midseason rankings.

15. Trevor Connelly

Trevor Connelly

The skilled American forward scored 31 goals and 78 points with Tri-City in the USHL, but saw his ranking drop from 11th midway through the season.

It would be a mistake to say that no consensus can be found in these classifications.

Demidov, for example, had nine scouts place him firmly among the draft’s top five prospects; Silayev, Levshunov and Lindstrom each earned eight votes in the top five.

But as you dig deeper into the numbers, there appears to be a wider divergence of opinion than we typically see within the top five, and the bandwidth between numbers 6 to 15 appears to be much narrower than we’ve seen before. .

To wit: Five scouts had Demidov as the No. 2 prospect behind Celebrini, but five others (three for Levshunov and two for Silayev) saw him differently.

Six prospects earned votes at No. 3: Silayev (three); Demidov and Lindstrom (two each) and one each for Levshunov, Parekh and Helenius.

There were eight…eight! – prospects who got votes at number 4: two for Silayev and Lindstrom and one for Demidov, Levshunov, Parekh, Dickinson, Buium and Yakemchuk.

And seven candidates got the fifth vote: Levshunov (three); Lindstrom (two) and one each for Demidov, Dickinson, Sennecke and Yakemchuk.

It was like that for the entire rest of the top 10: six prospects split the No. 6 votes; seven prospects shared the number 7 votes; six prospects at No. 8; seven in 9th place; and eight in number 10.

The five prospects ranked 11 through 15 “earned” those spots, relative to the 10 ahead of them, but there were some notable asterisks between them.

Yakemchuk, for example, is ranked No. 12 in the consensus, but he earned two votes in the top five; Eiserman is ranked 13th, but three scouts had him firmly in the top 10; Sennecke is ranked 14th, but he earned one vote in the top five and two more in the top 10.

There’s obviously still more hockey to be played for some of these prospects, and of course there’s the Central Scouting Bureau Combine in June and countless interviews with clubs that could still influence the final standings.

But as you prepare to watch the NHL draft lottery on Tuesday night and find out where your favorite team ends up fitting, it’s helpful to have a real-time view of how TSN’s scouting panel feels about the best of Class of 2024. outlook.