Ukraine steps up charm offensive in Africa

Ukraine steps up charm offensive in Africa

Ukraine has opened several new African embassies, still hoping to get a better return on its investment.

As it increasingly struggles to prevent Russia from encroaching on its territory, Ukraine persists in its charm offensive in Africa. In the tough battle in the east of the country, Ukraine is constantly losing territory, and each meter costs an incalculable loss of blood.

Russia currently occupies about 26% of Ukrainian territory. Their recent gains are largely due to right-wing Republicans in the US House of Representatives blocking aid to Ukraine for the past six months.

In April, Republicans finally relented and passed a $60 billion relief package. But it will take time for the weapons to leak, and in the meantime, Russia has stepped up attacks on Ukraine’s front lines and is attacking its energy infrastructure, trying to destroy the country’s morale.

Amid these grim events, Ukraine has continued to strengthen its relations with Africa. Last month, the country’s special envoy for the Middle East and Africa, Maksym Subkh, officially opened new embassies in Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Rwanda, Botswana, Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of the Congo during a tour of Africa.

To get food aid deliveries in the form of grain to Africa, Ukraine must challenge the Russian Black Sea Fleet

Ukraine already had embassies in Algeria, Angola, Ethiopia, Egypt, Kenya, Libya, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa, Senegal and Tunisia. subkh said ISS today In kyiv this week it was announced that Ukraine intended to open more soon in Sudan, Tanzania, Mauritania and Cameroon.

Subkh also noted that Ukraine was stepping up its food aid deliveries to Africa under its Grain from Ukraine charity program. He cited the delivery of nearly 250,000 tons of grain to Sudan, which is in dire straits after more than a year of brutal civil war. The World Food Program says nearly 18 million Sudanese face acute food insecurity.

To get grain to Africa, Ukraine must challenge the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Between mid-2022 and mid-2023, the Russian blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports was lifted under the Black Sea Grain Initiative overseen by the United Nations (UN). Nearly 33 million tonnes of grain and other food products were shipped to more than 40 countries, with 57% of grain exports going to developing countries.

Then Russia withdrew from the program. But Zelensky promised to unilaterally continue the initiative by expelling the Russian navy from Ukraine’s ports, all the way to the eastern side of the Black Sea. Ukraine now exports grain using the rivers and along the Romanian and Bulgarian coasts, where grain ships are escorted by navy ships from the two countries, which are members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Ukraine hopes African leaders will support its peace formula at Zelensky’s upcoming Geneva summit

Is all this worth it for Ukraine? Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba acknowledged to African journalists last November that Ukraine was getting “a very low return on its investment” in Africa. By this he meant that African leaders had not reciprocated his visits to Africa (then there were 12 in a few months). Nor had they become reliable supporters of pro-Ukraine resolutions at the UN.

The only visits African leaders have made to Ukraine were by the seven-nation African peace mission in June 2023. Although a valuable first step, the mission appears to have achieved little. One of the main points of the African peace plan was the demand that Russian President Vladimir Putin restore the Black Sea Grains Initiative. But when he blamed the initiative’s failure on Western sanctions, African leaders backed down and haven’t said a word since.

The only concrete legacy of the peace mission appears to have been Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s invitation to South African President Cyril Ramaphosa to join his talks on a peace formula in Ukraine. That helped thaw relations with Pretoria, which had been strained by South Africa’s non-aligned position on the war.

What can Ukraine gain by becoming friends with Africa? subkh said ISS today his country saw considerable economic potential on the continent. He said much of kyiv’s motivation for opening new embassies was to have diplomats on the ground to counter Russian anti-Ukrainian propaganda, which has been strong. It is also about countering Russia’s growing physical influence in Africa. In the Sahel in particular, Russia is steadily displacing France, the United States and other Western powers in countries that suffered military coups.

Rather than asking African countries to choose sides, the best strategy for Ukraine is to focus on specific issues.

The notorious private military and mercenary company Wagner still has a strong military presence in those countries, even under a different guise and under direct control from Moscow. Subkh said Ukraine had considerable experience fighting Wagner in Ukraine – where the group first emerged in 2014 – that it could share with African countries to curb Russia’s influence.

Has Subkh seen greater return on investment in Africa? Not really, he admits, but he remains optimistic that an even greater effort by Ukraine will produce better results.

He also says Ukraine hopes African leaders will support Ukraine’s peace formula at Zelensky’s upcoming summit in Geneva. South Africa has been participating in preparatory meetings of national security advisers and Subkh hopes Ramaphosa will use his influence to bring African leaders there. But that would require African leaders to endorse the central principle of the peace formula: that Russia must withdraw from all Ukrainian territory. That would be complicated.

Institute for Security Studies researcher Denys Reva suggests that perhaps too much is being asked of Africa. ‘The idea that African countries will choose a side in what is seen as a European war and burn bridges with the other side must be discarded. The best strategy for Ukraine is to focus on specific issues, such as child abduction, exchange (of prisoners of war) or support for international humanitarian law.’

In fact, not returning Ukraine’s investment may make sense for many African countries that believe a European war is none of their business. But Russia’s increasing activities in Africa make clear that war is not so far away after all.

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