The unexpected Senate race in Michigan that could determine control of the chamber

LANSING, Mich. (AP) — Elissa Slotkin had less than half an hour to face a retirement announcement that would reshape Michigan’s political landscape. The state’s top senator and third Democrat in the chamber, Debbie Stabenow, was about to reveal that retire in 2024.

Rep. Slotkin, a Democratic congresswoman from Holly, soon met with her team to mobilize for a bid for a U.S. Senate seat that Democrats didn’t expect would be difficult to defend in the closely divided chamber. Slotkin, a powerful fundraiser who had won one of the most contested House districts in the country, quickly emerged as the top choice of the Democratic Party establishment and began to establish a torrid fundraising pace.

It took Michigan Republicans longer to find their favorite. struck because of the agitation Between pro-Trump Republicans and the old guard of the state GOP, they finally appealed to the former U.S. representative. Mike Rogers come out of retirement to compete for the unexpected opening. Former President Donald Trump’s endorsement gave Rogers a clear shot at winning his party’s primary without drowning in the internal conflict that has plagued the Michigan Republican Party in recent years.

Both Slotkin and Rogers have opponents in the Aug. 6 primary, but they also have advantages that make a second showdown likely in November in a key state. With Trump and President Joe Biden ready to give it a hit For the state’s indispensable 15 electoral votes at the top of the ballot, the unexpected fight for Michigan’s open Senate seat could say a lot about what the winner will face once he is sworn in for a second term.

“This race is going down to the wire,” said former Michigan Republican Rep. Fred Upton. “They will be two heavyweights, in a positive way. “They really know the issues and will address them face to face.”

Hill Harper, a actor known for his roles in “CSI: NY” and “The Good Doctor,” and businessman Nasser Beydoun will challenge Slotkin for the Democratic nomination. Slotkin has maintained a lead of more than $8 million in cash reserves as of the end of March over both, along with support from several prominent Democrats.

National Republicans expected Rogers to have a similarly easy path to their party’s nomination. But the campaigns of former US representatives. justin amash and Peter Meijer, who ended his offer last week, as well as the businessman Sandy PenslerIt complicated his task a little.

Rogers’ biggest advantage is Trump’s endorsement, which came in February and has been rejected by some hardline Republicans because of Rogers’ past criticism of Trump. Rogers took the stage with Trump at a campaign event in Michigan on Wednesday, further aligning himself with a former president he had criticized after the Trump administration attempted to challenge the 2020 election results, when he compared his actions to “dictatorships.” From the third world”. “

Trump said Wednesday that Rogers “will be a warrior in the United States Senate and, more importantly, he will be a winner.”

Trump’s endorsement has been decisive in the Republican nominations in Michigan recently, but questions remain about whether it will hurt or help in the general election.

It’s a red line for voters like Tom Patton, a longtime Lansing-area resident who has been represented by both Rogers and Slotkin in Congress and even volunteered for Rogers’ first state Senate campaign.

“I really liked Mike Rogers back then and, in a way, I still do. He is a serious person and has wonderful credentials. But his support for Trump has completely turned me off,” said Patton, who voted for Nikki Haley in the state primary in February. “You can’t be in favor of someone like Trump who doesn’t accept the result of a fair election.”

The endorsement hasn’t helped Rogers’ fundraising either. In the first quarter of 2024, he raised just over $1 million, just a quarter of what Slotkin raised in the same period.

“We are going to have a better campaign. We don’t have to match it dollar for dollar,” Rogers said. “All we have to do is have enough money to make sure people understand the differences.”

The race is expected to take on similar dimensions to the presidential campaign, with Slotkin pushing for reproductive rights and Rogers criticizing Biden. border security and inflation. It may also include a strong element of both sides on the war in the Middle East, with Rogers invoking his foreign policy credentials and looking for ways to criticize Slotkin and Biden on an issue that divides Democrats.

Wayne County, which includes Detroit and has the state’s largest Democratic voter base, has become the epicenter of the opposition to Biden’s handling of the war between Israel and Hamas, and some have said they would not participate in the election.

Slotkin, who is Jewish and has extensive foreign policy experience as a former CIA analyst and Defense Department official, has at times faced criticism for not being tougher on Israel.

“There have been few problems that have kept me up at night more than this one. There are few issues that are more contentious in my own district, in my own state,” Slotkin said. “But a leader’s job is to put aside his personal feelings and do what is best for the people he represents.”

Arab American support could prove crucial to Slotkin’s chances in November, but his relationship with at least one of that community’s leaders remains problematic. Shortly before announcing his Senate campaign in early 2023, Slotkin met with Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud, the top elected official in one of the country’s only Muslim-majority cities. The conversation soured when Hammoud took offense at the implication that the community would not support Slotkin because of his Jewish heritage, which has not been an impediment in the past for other Jewish candidates.

Slotkin’s campaign declined to comment on the exchange, but the two have not spoken since.

Slotkin voted earlier this month in favor of a package that would send more aid to Israel, but said in an interview that Israel must allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza and explain what its military strategy is going forward.

“If they don’t, then I’m willing to have a conversation about putting conditions on offensive, not defensive, aid,” she said.

It seems unlikely that opposition to Slotkin in the community will translate into support for Rogers. He has remained staunchly pro-Israel and said the country is justified in his actions in Gaza because “they have the right to defend themselves and they have the right to go get those hostages.”

Despite turmoil within the Democratic base, the party has not lost a Senate race since 1994 and has exceeded expectations in the recent Michigan elections.

In 2022, Democrats gained full control of the Michigan state government for the first time in decades, in part due to a electoral initiative that enshrined the right to abortion in the state constitution. Slotkin says abortion rights remain a winning issue in what may be the country’s swing state.

“What we need now in 2024 is at least a 10-year plan to restore the federal right to abortion,” he said during an April 24 campaign event. “I’m tired of waiting for the next shoe to drop. And part of the reason I want to be your next senator is because we need a new generation to think about our plans, our strategy.”

Rogers dismisses the idea that abortion rights are still on the ballot in Michigan. He said he would not vote for a national abortion ban if it arose during his Senate term, although he did vote for a 20-week abortion ban while serving in the House.

“I am an advocate of states’ rights. “I am not going back to Washington, DC to undo what the people of Michigan decided to do,” Rogers said.

Republicans welcome Rogers as a moderate, sensible voice who has a legitimate chance to seize the unexpected opportunity that arose with Stabenow’s retirement, in a state where they haven’t been winning much lately. Democrats, meanwhile, believe Slotkin could emerge as a leading voice in the next generation of party leaders.

That makes for an intriguing matchup that no one saw coming.

“The Senate is in play,” said Jason Roe, a Republican strategist in Michigan. “And Rogers and Slotkin could be a clash of the titans.”

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Associated Press writer Michelle L. Price contributed to this report from Freeland, Michigan.