Rishi Sunak faces decisive local elections as ‘Armageddon’ looms with new poll low

Rishi Sunak faces a decisive 48 hours as some Conservative MPs plot to engineer his downfall, even as local election results in England are still being counted.

The chances of the Prime Minister facing a vote of no confidence from his MPs increased on Thursday when the latest YouGov poll revealed the party is even less popular under his leadership than during Liz Truss’s calamitous tenure.

According to the poll, carried out on April 30 and May 1, the Conservatives have dropped to just 18 per cent: 26 points behind Labor on 44 per cent and just three points ahead of Reform UK on 15 percent.

If this were repeated in a general election, the Conservatives would be reduced to 32 seats and Sir Keir Starmer would have a majority of 388, according to prediction site Electoral Calculus.

There was more bad news in a Techne UK poll of 1,632 voters, conducted partly on election day, which put Labor on 44 per cent and the Conservatives on 22 per cent. Poll data revealed that only 43 per cent of those who backed the Conservatives in the 2019 election would do so in the next general election.

The results raised the nerves of Conservative MPs as two days of counting began.

A Conservative MP said The independent that a move against Sunak is “likely” if West Midlands mayor Andy Street or Tees Valley mayor Ben Houchen lose their jobs.

If both lose, it is “almost certain” that the 52 letters needed to trigger a leadership vote will be sent to Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee, the former minister said.

This statement was shared by former chancellor George Osborne in his Political currency podcast.

“If Andy Street loses in the West Midlands, that’s bad enough… (but) if Ben Houchen loses, it will be armageddon, because at that point, people will say: ‘We are absolutely heading for a crushing defeat.’ ”Mr Osborne said.

However, Conservative MPs have privately made clear that the two mayors are not the only reference point for Sunak’s survival. Some will act if more than 500 of the 985 Conservative council seats being defended are lost, while others are considering a possible removal of the 29 Tory police and crime commissioners across England.

Conservative MPs have also been disbanded by former colleague Lee Anderson, who defected to the Reform Party after being suspended for Islamophobic comments about London mayor Sadiq Khan.

With many conservative voters apparently staying home or turning to reform, Anderson said: “The gap is closing. And the lines on the graph only travel in one direction.”

The most likely faction to try to unseat Sunak will come from the right of the party, which could turn to former Home Secretary Suella Braverman or former Home Secretary Robert Jenrick.

But it has been claimed that the more moderate Penny Mordaunt has been in talks to be installed as Sunak’s replacement to take the party into the general election.

A Mordaunt supporter said The independent: “Penny is the only one who can limit the damage. She is popular in the country and not a crazy rightist. “If we move further to the right and try to imitate Nigel Farage, the party will be over.”

There is some optimism at Conservative headquarters (CCHQ), with YouGov placing Lord Houchen as the clear winner with 51 per cent to 44 per cent against Labour’s Chris McEwan. But he is on a knife edge in the West Midlands, with Street just two points ahead of Labour’s Richard Parker on 41 per cent to 39 per cent.

Any hope of a miraculous victory in London appears to be fading for the Conservatives, with Khan (47 per cent) well ahead of his Conservative rival Susan Hall (25 per cent).

However, Khan has informed Labour’s shadow cabinet that it could face a shock defeat because 900,000 voters in London do not have the necessary identification at polling stations. He is also concerned about the introduction of the first-past-the-post system in mayoral elections, the low turnout and the backlash against his extension of the ultra-low emissions zone (Ulez) to the outskirts of London.

A shadow cabinet member said: “It should be an easy win for Sadiq, but there are reasons to be nervous, especially with voter ID.”

Meanwhile, the Blackpool South by-election has already been written off as a Tory defeat. However, Conservative MPs are waiting to see if the party comes third behind Reform in a seat they won in 2019.

One MP said: “Losing is one thing. Everyone expects it. But if we come in third place after the reform, that will really raise serious questions.”

And even with victory in the mayoral election, Mr Sunak’s position is in doubt after Lord Houchen said The independent that people who say they will vote for him have warned that they will not vote for the conservatives in a general election, splitting between supporting reform or staying home.

Results for most Tees Valley council and mayoral elections are expected on Friday, while West Midlands and London mayoral votes will be counted on Saturday.