Above-normal rainfall forecast for southwest monsoon season – World

Above-normal rainfall is most likely during the 2024 southwest monsoon season (June-September) across most of South Asia, according to the South Asia Climate Outlook Forum, which is supported by the WMO and Pune Regional Climate Centre. Above-normal temperatures are also likely across much of the region.

Some areas in the north, east and northeast of the region are expected to receive below-normal rainfall.

From June to September, the southwest monsoon dominates life in much of South Asia. The monsoon, which accounts for 75 to 90 percent of annual rainfall in most parts of the region (except Sri Lanka and southeast India), has a pervasive influence on the socioeconomic fabric of the region. While they are the lifeblood of national economies and agricultural production, monsoon-related heavy rains and floods also cause many casualties each year, underscoring the importance of early warnings.

Advance information on the likely performance of the monsoon supports planning and decision-making in climate-sensitive sectors, such as agriculture, and informs public health and risk management strategies.

Monsoon rainfall in 2023 was well below average, according to the WMO report on the state of the climate in Asia.

The South Asia Climate Outlook Forum was launched in 2010 under the auspices of the WMO to engage countries that share a strong and common interest in understanding and forecasting the monsoon. It is part of a global network of regional climate outlook forums supported by WMO and its partners to promote collaboration and information exchange on seasonal climate prediction and related issues.

The regional climate outlook was developed collaboratively by the nine National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of the region, with the support of international experts at a 28th in-person session of the South Asia Climate Outlook Forum. NMHSs are responsible for reducing predictions to inform local decision making.

The process involved an expert assessment of prevailing global climate conditions, national-level forecasts, and forecasts from different climate forecasting agencies around the world.

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Moderate El Niño conditions currently prevail in the tropical Pacific Ocean and are expected to weaken to neutral conditions during the first part of the monsoon season and then transition to La Niña conditions during the second half of the monsoon season. However, there is uncertainty about its strength and the timing of its appearance.

Predictions from global climate models before and during the spring season generally have greater uncertainty due to spring’s barrier to seasonal predictability. Other regional and global factors, as well as the intraseasonal characteristics of the region, can also affect seasonal weather patterns.

The WMO will publish its next El Niño/La Niña Update and its Annual to Decadal Global Update in early June.