A weak, Kremlin-influenced Libya is a threat to NATO and European security

With much of the world’s eyes fixed on the wars raging in Gaza and Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to expand his country’s reach in Africa.

It is now using Libya as a springboard to position Russian submarines in the central Mediterranean and place nuclear weapons on Europe’s southern flank.

Enrico Borghi, a centrist deputy and member of the Italian parliament’s intelligence committee, recently warned that Russia’s interest in Tobruk in Libya is no mystery, which could be a preamble to sending its nuclear submarines there, much like The Soviet Union sent its missiles to Cuba. in 1962.

It is clear that having submarines within a few hundred kilometers of NATO states would not be good for security.

In light of this, Washington’s decision to reopen an embassy in Libya a decade after suspending its operations in the country is significant.

A strong Russian presence in Libya is not only a security threat to NATO and Europe: Libya’s geographical location, linking Niger, Chad and Sudan to North Africa and Europe, makes it of vital strategic importance.

Russian traces everywhere

The Russian footprint in Libya has grown substantially, along with an evolving military presence, evidenced by a recent delivery of military supplies to the port of Tobruk.

This strategic eastern city saw the arrival of armored vehicles, weapons and equipment – ​​the fifth such shipment in a short span, indicating a systematic build-up.

The supplies, presumed to have been shipped from Russia’s naval facility in Tartus, Syria, were transported by ships of its Northern Fleet, reflecting an unwavering commitment to Moscow’s Mediterranean tactic that has survived the impacts of war. in Ukraine.

The shipment and what it entails is not an isolated event but part of a broader Russian pattern to establish a perpetual military presence similar to its nearly decade-long posture in Syria.

Such expansion is a direct challenge to NATO’s southern flank.

The introduction of advanced air defense systems by Russian operators in Libya that threaten Western counterattack operations “beyond the horizon” in North Africa and the Sahel changes the regional balance of control in the air, while threatening freedom of navigation from the The delivery of anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities will negate NATO’s operational reach in its own backyard.

How prepared is the West for Libya’s further decline?

The entrenchment in Libya also serves as a gateway to deeper advances in Africa, where Moscow is shrewdly exploiting a partnership void, offering African regimes military and economic collaboration devoid of the conditional commitments favored by Western backers.

Furthermore, Russia’s pursuit of a naval presence in eastern Libya, which will likely culminate in a base for its nuclear submarines, provides Moscow with more than just a strategic outpost overlooking the entire EU.

It adds a frustrating layer of complexity to NATO’s security calculus that now weighs continued Russian advances in Ukraine and the long-term impacts of the American withdrawal from Niger and potentially Chad.

Simply put, Moscow’s strategy in Libya is shifting from the usual fusion of military engagement with political influence in Libya, facilitated in part by alignment with regional strongman Khalifa Haftar.

By supplanting Western influence, Russia’s opportunism and exploitation of its geopolitical failings have helped enhance its stature even at the height of an unnecessary war in Ukraine.

The cascading impact of Moscow’s maneuvers raises serious questions about the West’s preparedness for the diminishing prospects for a stable, secure and sovereign Libya.

This is why Washington’s decision to reestablish a diplomatic presence in Libya is a strategic bet aimed at countering Russia’s growing presence and, at the same time, strengthening the United Nations Support Mission.

However, America is back in town.

The move comes after a palpable pause that points to recalibrated approaches in Washington’s Libya dossier to incorporate a strategic calculus that transcends traditional diplomacy, for a new engagement that can effectively counter Russia’s growing incursions into Africa.

It is the clearest reflection so far of the interaction between geopolitical rivalry and the urgency of stabilizing a paralyzed country on the southern periphery of Europe.

By reestablishing a physical diplomatic footprint in Libya, the United States is taking a rare proactive stance that carries profound implications for the rise of Russia. The planned facility in Tripoli will facilitate closer monitoring and the ability to challenge Russian narratives and influence on the ground.

Reintroducing American diplomats to Libya is not simply a symbolic act. It will enable persistent engagement with Libyan actors to maintain key relationships and develop a firm understanding of local dynamics that often elude remote diplomacy.

It also represents a tangible commitment to support UN-led mediation efforts and lay the groundwork for critical elections. A secure and stable Libya is deeply intertwined with broader interests that, when carefully managed, will help immunize the country against a rising tide of instability that could undermine its transition to a post-paralysis era.

The September 2012 attack on the US diplomatic mission in Benghazi cast a shadow over the US return to Libya, stifling any optimism about reestablishing a diplomatic presence.

The memory of the Benghazi attacks also prompted an evolution in American diplomacy regarding Libya that is based on security and sustainability.

This includes cultivating continued engagement on the ground with Libyan actors and establishing robust channels of dialogue to address issues before escalation occurs.

It is a welcome shift towards preventing potential risks, diplomatic intervention to avoid crises, and ensuring that the Libyan political system is protected from worsening regional vulnerabilities.

There is no time to lose

Libya’s long-standing state of fragmentation poses challenges to Brussels’ effort to tackle migrant waves, as any unrest between sub-Saharan Africa and the Maghreb acts as a catalyst for mass movement of people to Europe, with implications for security , political cohesion and security. network systems within the EU.

Furthermore, the power vacuum in Libya could become a breeding ground for extremism that would be difficult to counter given the long-standing presence of mercenaries and foreign fighters, along with deeply entrenched local militias in a very complicated security landscape.

To achieve sustainable peace, the United States and Europe will have to leverage diplomatic pressure and develop effective strategies to uproot the political economies of Libya’s hybrid actors that are key to its longevity.

Furthermore, Western participation is essential to support the UN-brokered political settlement between Libyan actors, by providing an enabling environment for transparent electoral processes and equitable distribution of resources.

Strategic engagement includes recognizing Libyan sovereignty and facilitating national reconciliation through initiatives that reflect the principles of “Libyan ownership and leadership,” central to the UN approach and emphasized by Libyans themselves.

Furthermore, efforts to establish inclusive national mechanisms for the transparent and equitable management of Libya’s wealth and resources must run parallel to political mediation.

Failure to do so risks undermining reconciliation efforts and the building of a stable and secure future by addressing long-term economic and political marginalization, particularly in southern Libya.

Therefore, efforts focused on economic integration, accountability and the rehabilitation of Libya’s shattered social fabric, backed by Western support, will be crucial to restoring stability in Libya.

Hafed Al-Ghwell is Executive Director of the North Africa Initiative (NAI) and Senior Fellow at the SAIS Foreign Policy Institute (FPI) at Johns Hopkins University.

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